Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors.

The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Here, we study dengue virus (DENV) transmission across the ecologically and demographically distinct regions or Ecuador. We analyzed province-level age-stratified dengue incidence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have age-specific distributions of hospital-seeking cases consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. To evaluate factors associated with geographic differences in DENV transmission potential, we modeled DENV vector risk using 11,693 Aedes aegypti presence points to the resolution of 1 hectare. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador, including in provinces identified as having increasing DENV transmission in our models, live in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti, with population size, trash collection, elevation, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

Increasing transmission of dengue virus across ecologically diverse regions of Ecuador and associated risk factors.

The distribution and intensity of viral diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, including dengue, have rapidly increased over the last century. Ecuador is an interesting country to study drivers of dengue virus (DENV) transmission given it has multiple ecologically and demographically distinct regions. Here, we analyze province-level age-stratified dengue prevalence data from 2000-2019 using catalytic models to estimate the force of infection of DENV over eight decades and across provinces in Ecuador. We found that provinces established endemic DENV transmission at different time periods. Coastal provinces with the largest and most connected cities had the earliest and highest increase in DENV transmission, starting around 1980 and continuing to the present. In contrast, remote and rural areas with reduced access, like the northern coast and the Amazon regions, experienced a rise in DENV transmission and endemicity only in the last 10 to 20 years. The newly introduced chikungunya and Zika viruses have distinct age-specific prevalence distributions consistent with recent emergence across all provinces. We evaluated factors to the resolution of 1 hectare associated with geographic differences in vector suitability and arbovirus disease in the last 10 years by modeling 11,693 A aegypti presence points and 73,550 arbovirus cases. In total, 56% of the population of Ecuador lives in areas with high risk of Aedes aegypti. Most suitable provinces had hotspots for arbovirus disease risk, with population size, elevation, sewage connection, trash collection, and access to water as important determinants. Our investigation serves as a case study of the changes driving the expansion of DENV and other arboviruses globally and suggest that control efforts should be expanded to semi-urban and rural areas and to historically isolated regions to counteract increasing dengue outbreaks.

The spatio-temporal dynamics of infant mortality in Ecuador from 2010 to 2019.

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is still a key indicator in a middle-income country such as Ecuador where a slightly increase up to 11.75 deaths per thousand life births has been observed in 2019. The purpose of this study is to propose and apply a prioritization method that combines clusters detection (Local Indicators of Spatial Association, LISA) and a monotonic statistic depicting time trend over 10 years (Mann-Kendall) at municipal level. Annual national databases (2010 to 2019) of live births and general deaths are downloaded from National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC). The results allow identifying a slight increase in the IMR at the national level from 9.85‰ in 2014 to 11.75‰ in 2019, neonatal mortality accounted for 60% of the IMR in the last year. The LISA analysis allowed observing that the high-high clusters are mainly concentrated in the central highlands. At the local level, Piñas, Cuenca, Ibarra and Babahoyo registered the highest growth trends (0.7,1). The combination of techniques made it possible to identify eight priority counties, half of them pertaining to the highlands region, two to the coastal region and two to the Amazon region. To keep infant mortality at a low level is necessary to prioritize critical areas where public allocation of funds should be concentrated and formulation of policies.

Achieving high immunogenicity against poliovirus with fractional doses of inactivated poliovirus vaccine in Ecuador-results from a cross-sectional serological survey.

Background: In January 2018, Ecuador changed its routine immunization schedule by replacing one full dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) administered intramuscularly at 2 months of age with two doses of fractional IPV (1/5th of full dose, fIPV) administered intradermally at 2 and 4 months of age; and bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (serotypes 1 and 3, bOPV) continues to be used. We compared seroprevalence and titres of polio antibodies achieved by the past and the current immunization schedules. Methods: This was a cross-sectional serological survey in children in Ecuador who received bOPV and either one IPV dose in 2017 or two fIPV doses in 2018. One blood sample was collected between October 2020 and March 2021 and analysed for presence of poliovirus neutralizing antibodies at CDC, Atlanta by microneutralization assay. Findings: We obtained 321 analysable samples from 329 (97·6%) enrolled children (160 received IPV and 161 fIPV). For serotype 2, seroprevalence was 50·0% (CI95%= 44·2-55·8%) for IPV and 83·2% (CI95%=78·5-87·1%) for fIPV recipients (p<0·001). Median antibody titers for serotype 2 were significantly lower for IPV than for fIPV recipients (3·0, CI95%= 3 - 3·5 vs. 4·8, CI95%= 4·5 - 5·2, p<0·001). Seroprevalence for serotypes 1 and 3 was above 90% and was not significantly different between IPV and fIPV recipients. Interpretation: Ecuador achieved significantly better poliovirus serotype 2 immunogenicity with two fIPV doses than with one IPV dose, while preserving vaccine supply and reducing costs. Our data provide further evidence that fIPV is a beneficial and potentially a cost-effective option in polio immunization. Funding: WHO obtained funds for the study from Rotary International.

Establishment, Genetic Diversity, and Habitat Suitability of Aedes albopictus Populations from Ecuador.

Aedes albopictus, also known as the tiger mosquito, is widespread worldwide across tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions. This insect is associated with the transmission of several vector-borne diseases, and, as such, monitoring its distribution is highly important for public health. In Ecuador, Ae. albopictus was first reported in 2017 in Guayaquil. Since then, the vector has been identified in the Northeastern lowlands and the Amazon basin. This study aims to determine the genetic diversity of Ecuadorian populations of Ae. albopictus through the analysis of the mitochondrial gene COI and to describe the potential distribution areas of this species within the country. The genetic diversity was determined by combining phylogenetic and population genetics analyses of five localities in Ecuador. Results showed two haplotypes in the Ecuadorian populations of Ae. albopictus. Haplotype 1 (H1) was found in the coastal and Amazon individuals, while haplotype 2 (H2) was only found in the three northeastern lowlands sites. In a worldwide context, H1 is the most widespread in 21 countries with temperate and tropical habitats. In contrast, H2 distribution is limited to five countries in tropical regions, suggesting fewer adaptation traits. Our prediction model showed a suitable habitat for Ae. albopictus in all regions (coastal, Amazon basin, and Andean lowland regions and the Galápagos Islands) of Ecuador. Hence, understanding different aspects of the vector can help us implement better control strategies for surveillance and vectorial control in Ecuador.

Characterization of the genetic structure of mcr-1 gene among Escherichia coli isolates recovered from surface waters and sediments from Ecuador.

Although anthropogenic activities contribute to the selection and spread of antibiotic resistance in aquatic environments, limited information is available from countries with absent or incomplete sewage treatment systems and the impact of their discharges onto water bodies. This study therefore aimed to characterize the genetic structure of colistin resistance (mcr) genes among Escherichia coli isolates recovered from surface waters and sediments in Ecuador. Out of 459 isolates, four Escherichia coli showed multidrug-resistant phenotypes, which harbored the mcr-1 gene and ß-lactamases, such as blaTEM, blaCTX-M-15, blaCTX-M-55, or blaCTX-M-65 genes. Three E. coli isolates (U20, U30 and U144) shared a similar genetic environment surrounding the mcr-1 gene, which was located on plasmids. Only one E. coli isolate (U175) showed that the mcr-1 gene was chromosomally located. Moreover, the core genome multilocus sequence typing (cgMLST) analysis revealed that these isolates belong to different lineages. This study represents the first detection of the mcr-1 gene in multidrug-resistant E. coli isolates from environmental samples in Ecuador.

Adapting for the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador, a characterization of hospital strategies and patients.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. In Ecuador, the first case of COVID-19 was recorded on 29 February 2020. Despite efforts to control its spread, SARS-CoV-2 overran the Ecuadorian public health system, which became one of the most affected in Latin America on 24 April 2020. The Hospital General del Sur de Quito (HGSQ) had to transition from a general to a specific COVID-19 health center in a short period of time to fulfill the health demand from patients with respiratory afflictions. Here, we summarized the implementations applied in the HGSQ to become a COVID-19 exclusive hospital, including the rearrangement of hospital rooms and a triage strategy based on a severity score calculated through an artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted chest computed tomography (CT). Moreover, we present clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory data from 75 laboratory tested COVID-19 patients, which represent the first outbreak of Quito city. The majority of patients were male with a median age of 50 years. We found differences in laboratory parameters between intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU cases considering C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, and lymphocytes. Sensitivity and specificity of the AI-assisted chest CT were 21.4% and 66.7%, respectively, when considering a score >70%; regardless, this system became a cornerstone of hospital triage due to the lack of RT-PCR testing and timely results. If health workers act as vectors of SARS-CoV-2 at their domiciles, they can seed outbreaks that might put 1,879,047 people at risk of infection within 15 km around the hospital. Despite our limited sample size, the information presented can be used as a local example that might aid future responses in low and middle-income countries facing respiratory transmitted epidemics.

COVID-19 Infection and Previous BCG Vaccination Coverage in the Ecuadorian Population.

The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) is a well-known vaccine with almost a century of use, with the apparent capability to improve cytokine production and epigenetics changes that could develop a better response to pathogens. It has been postulated that BCG protection against SARS-CoV-2 has a potential role in the pandemic, through the presence of homologous amino acid sequences. To identify a possible link between BCG vaccination coverage and COVID-19 cases, we used official epidemic data and Ecuadorian Ministry of Health and Pan American Health Organization vaccination information. BCG information before 1979 was available only at a national level. Therefore, projections based on the last 20 years were performed, to compare by specific geographic units. We used a Mann-Kendall test to identify BCG coverage variations, and mapping was conducted with a free geographic information system (QGIS). Nine provinces where BCG vaccine coverage was lower than 74.25% show a significant statistical association (χ2 Pearson's = 4.800, df = 1, p = 0.028), with a higher prevalence of cases for people aged 50 to 64 years than in younger people aged 20 to 49 years. Despite the availability of BCG vaccination data and the mathematical models needed to compare these data with COVID-19 cases, our results show that, in geographic areas where BCG coverage was low, 50% presented a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases that were young; thus, low-coverage years were more affected.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Influenza Morbidity and Its Association with Climatic and Housing Conditions in Ecuador.

The external environment directly influences human health. However, what happens inside? This work deals with the effect that the interior thermal variables have on the propagation of respiratory diseases and focused on the relation of the temperature and relative humidity inside social housing in the 1040 parishes of Ecuador and the transmission of influenza. On the one hand, historical weather-related variables were used to simulate and estimate the interior conditions, and thresholds on temperature and humidity were determined. On the other hand, the health-related variable was determined by analyzing the statistics corresponding to the influenza and viral pneumonia in 2009 since that year was critical for these diseases; the data were divided by month for each parish. Finally, the correlation of these variables determines the relative importance of the interior conditions on the respiratory health of its inhabitants. The preliminary results indicate that the places with the lowest temperatures and relative humidity could favor the virus transmission. Also, the analysis indicated that respiratory diseases increase in August and October. In this way, it is clear that social housing projects in Ecuador require a study which guarantees not only energy efficiency and sustainability related issues but also the well-being of their inhabitants.

Risk Factors Associated with Attacks of Hematophagous Bats (Desmodus rotundus) on Cattle in Ecuador.

In recent years, there has been an increasing risk of hematophagous bat attacks in Latin America, where livestock production is a basic source of food for local populations. In Ecuador, livestock represented an important part of agricultural output. Some cases of cattle bitten by bats in the province of Santa Elena have been reported; however, no previous studies have been conducted to determine the magnitude of the attacks and the associated risk factors. In this research, a cross-sectional descriptive study was performed recording attacks of hematophagous bats (Desmodus rotundus) through visual inspection of livestock and the capture of specimens by mist nets. Generally, the prevalence of D. rotundus attacks on farms was 69%, whereas attacks on bovine had 24% of prevalence. From the captured specimens, 93% were identified as D. rotundus and within the 30% of the captured D. rotundus, no infections for rabies virus were diagnosed. The univariable analysis used for estimating the risk factors associated with bat attacks showed that corrals away from populated centers present the highest risk (odds ratio [OR] = 19.864; p = 0.0004), followed by tree density >30 per hectare (OR = 16.313; p < 0.0001) and predatory birds of bats (OR = 15.375; p < 0.0001); a binary logistic regression model showed "corrals away from populated centers" (OR = 23.47; p = 0.006) as the main risk factor. Linear regression analysis showed good correlation between the number of bovines attacked and the number of bites (R2 = 0.977; p < 0.0001) suggesting some feeding patterns of D. rotundus. This study could be used as a starting point for understanding the feeding habits of D. rotundus and factors governing their attacks in coastal regions of Ecuador, and potential occurrences of rabies infections. With this knowledge, surveillance and control programs can be supported to improve rabies transmission monitoring.

The geospatial relationship of pterygium and senile cataract with ambient solar ultraviolet in tropical Ecuador.

Tropical Ecuador presents a unique climate in which we study the relationship between the ambient levels of solar ultraviolet radiation and eye disease in the absence of a latitudinal gradient. The national distribution of surface ultraviolet, taking into account MODIS and OMI satellite observation of aerosol, ozone, surface albedo, local elevation and cloud fractions measured during 2011, was compared with the national pterygium (WHO ICD H11) and senile cataract (WHO ICD H25) incidence projected from the 2010 National Institute of Statistics and Census (Ecuador). Public Health Ministry projections for age categories 0 to 39, 40 to 59 and 60+ years were compared to surface ultraviolet irradiance data in 1040 parishes. Correlations drawn between modelled surface ultraviolet and eye disease incidence show a significant increase in both pterygium and senile cataract in the highest ambient exposure regions of the Pacific coast and western lowlands with incidence rates of 34.39 and 16.17 per 100 000 residents respectively. The lowest rates of incidence for pterygium (6.89 per 100 000) and senile cataract (2.90 per 100 000) were determined in high altitude sites and are attributed here to increased daily cloud fraction for parishes located in the Andean mountain range. The South American Andes experience the highest solar UV exposures on Earth and report frequent high incidence of keratinocyte cancer. Our results show the high Andes to be the location of the lowest eye disease incidence suggesting that both pterygium and senile cataract are the result of cumulative exposure to solar ultraviolet. These findings have clear implications for the agricultural workers and fishermen of the lowland districts of Ecuador, contrary to conventional understanding that greater risks are faced in locations of high altitude.